A few years ago I worked with a database professional who had worked inside the gaming industry. I mentioned my interest in analysing betting data, and he said that it was a little known fact that if you always backed Manchester United to win, then over time you'd always make a profit.

Could it really be that simple? I often wondered. The conversation came back to me a couple of weeks ago so I thought I would see what the data actually said.

Let's start with 2010, and take it from there.

I have exported the data out of my database into Excel and pasted a screen grab below. We are thirty matches in and it's not looking pretty: Three grand outlay in stakes and just over £1400 back in winnings.

Let's just graph the rest of the season...

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So this is how the 2010-2011 season would've played out if you'd put a £100 level stake on Man U:

It's slightly disappointing viewing... but the bookmakers aren't in the business of giving away free money.

Let's take a look at 2011 and see if they fared any better:

As you can see, around week 31 it all got close to profit, but it looks like the exception rather than the rule:

Let's have a quick look at 2012:

I don't think it's a coincidence that it was in this year that I had the conversation about Man U's long-term profitability. Looks like the data says very much otherwise.

Lets try 2013-2014:

Ouch - not a great year.

I think we can all see where this is going, but let's have 2014 - 2015 for completeness' sake:

Yep - once again that wasn't so great.

I Will do a full analysis across all the European domestic football to see if that pattern is borne out across all the teams. I am pretty sure it will be,

Also - just this week I have got hold of a copy of Paul Steele's legendary book "Profitable Football Betting", in which he details fifteen systems and evaluates their profitability. It's an old book but it is considered the bible in this arena, so it will be interesting to put some of his rating systems to test. More on that to come.

If you have any questions or comments, please do so below. Thanks for reading, more soon.

Jamie

PS. This strategy won't make you any money - but maybe you should read my latest post:

http://footballbettinganalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2016/02/the-best-way-ive-yet-seen-to-profit.html

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Away Win Trixie...

I came across an interesting looking football betting system here:

http://youngbie.blogspot.com.mt/2013/02/how-to-make-massive-profits.html

With the compelling headline “How To Make Massive Profits Consistently On Football Betting”. The author says that it is the result of four years work and sleepless nights. The author claims to average £400 per week on average using this football betting system, and as much as £800 when odds are favourable.

The author describes himself as a professional gambler of thirty years standing, and is a certified accountant by training.

The author provides a profit and loss statement for a period in 2006/7 where apparently an average profit of £442.32 per bet has been made.

Given that no charge is made for the information I will, for now, assume that the betting system is in the public domain and as such I will reproduce the rules here for clarity.

The season should have run at least six weeks before starting to look for selections. We are only selecting from league fixtures.

We are looking for away teams who are odds-on to win.

We require 3 away teams for this bet. If there are more than three odds-on away teams, then the author suggests that recent away form should be examined to determine the “hotter” team. No objective process for defining this is provided.

The bet is placed using a Trixie. This is three doubles and a treble.

I’m going to start the analysis of this betting system a number of weeks into the 2010-2011 season (greater than six). 

I will be using William Hill odds and staking £100 per trixie (£25 for each constituent bet).

Let’s look at the data for Saturday, 6th November 2010.

I have data for 39 league fixtures for this date, and (conveniently) there are only three where the home team is odds-on. Unfortunately, the day ended up like this:

So we are on £-100.

Let’s roll forward to the following Saturday, the 13^th November 2010. This week we have five teams in the frame:

Given that we have multiple candidate selections, we now need to look at recent form, per the Author’s advice. No objective details are given for how recent form should actually be interpreted, the only guideline is that the previous six matches should be examined to determine the “hotter” team.

This being the case, I propose to test on the following basis: If there are multiple candidate bets then the side with the greater points total over their previous six away matches prior to this one will be selected.  Recent home form will be disregarded.

 In the event of a tie in this instance, I propose to use the team with the greater points difference to create a tie-break.

If we add in the away form for these candidate selections and sort based on the recent away performance, we can see that this week’s selections are as follows:

So – how did the three away teams fare this week?

No joy again this week, I’m afraid. Wimbledon lost, Man U drew and Luton obliged with an away win.

Let’s move on to Saturday, 20^th November. The Saturday league fixture list has only two candidates; Birmingham v Chelsea and Kilmarnock v Rangers. Widening our criteria out to include Sunday fixtures still doesn’t provide us with a third candidate bet. So no bet this week.

Let’s take a look at the weekend of Saturday, 27^th November. Nothing doing… only Newcastle v Chelsea in the frame.

On to 4^th/5^th December. No bets at all again.

11^th and 12^th December – only two candidate matches. Inverness v Rangers and West Ham v Man City. No third candidate.

18^th and 19^th December -  no bets

No football action over Christmas.

1^st and 2^nd January 2011. We are in business today with the following bets for our Trixie:

So what happened on the day? Arsenal and Man U both did the business so we have some money to collect from the bookies. Let’s see how the trixie bet would look.

A Trixie is four bets across three events, it’s three doubles and and one treble.

So for the 1^st January 2011 we would have bet as follows:

Birmingham v Arsenal and Altrincham v Wrexham (Double 1)

Birmingham v Arsenal and West Brom v Man United (Double 2)

Altrincham v Wrexham and West Brom v Man United (Double 3)

Plus the 3 – way accumulator.

As previously stated I’m working on the basis of £100 per trixie, that’s £25 per constituent bet.

Double 1 – no return

Double 2 – WON. £25 x 1.67 x 1.53 = £63.88

Double 3 – no return

Treble – no return.

Nice to get a few quid back, but obviously this still leaves us with a net loss of about £36 on the day.

On to the following week – 8^th and 9^th January 2011.

We have the following bets:

Alas, the fixtures resulted in a draw and two home wins. So we are down another £100.

On to 15^th and 16^th January and we have four matches in the frame:

We have to exclude Histon v York in this case as they were the loser on the recent away form test. 

So what happened? Arsenal and Celtic both obliged, netting us £25 x 1.57 x 1.44 = £56.52. 

Interestingly, the Histon v York fixture that we excluded on recent away form was in fact an away win for York. However, system rules are system rules, so no win.

On to the next week! Unfortunately, there’s only one candidate this week (Tranmere v Southampton) so no dice.

On to 29^th and 30^th January and we have the following bet:

Brechin and Grimsby did the honours, returning £25 x 1.83 x 1.91 = £87.38.

5^th and 6^th of February gives us 5 candidates, which on the recent form rule we whittle down to these:

Wrexham and Raith Rovers duly obliged, returning £25 x 1.83 x 1.44 = £65.88.

12^th and 13^th February gives us 6 candidates, the top three being:

Celtic and Hearts did the business, returning £25 x 1.57 x 1.73 = £67.90.

19^th and 20^th February gives us 4 candidates, the top three being:

Dundee and Raith won, returning £25 x 1.53 x 1.62 = £61.97.

The following weekend, 26^th and 27^th February 2011 gave us the following top three aways:

Unfortunately the result was three home wins so it’s a £-100 strike-out.

5^th and 6^th March 2011:

Rangers and Livingston oblige, returning £25 x 1.4 x 1.8 = £63

No bet the following week due to no selections.

19^th and 20^th March 2011:

Wins for Arbroath and Livingston return £25 x 1.67 x 1.91 = £79.74.

26^th and 27^th March 2011:

Only Livingston managed the away win so we have a £100 strike-out.

2^nd and 3^rd April 2011:

Wins for Dunfermline and Man U return £25 x 1.73 x 1.83 = £79.15.

9^th and 10^th April 2011: There are 8 matches with odds-on away teams, but they reduce to the following three when ranked on the away strength rule:

Livingston and Rangers won, returning £25 x 1.62 x 1.25 = £50.63.

16^th and 17^th April 2011: 7 candidates reduce to the following three:

Albion and Crawley do the honours returning £25 x 1.83 x 1.92 = £87.84.

26^th and 27^th April 2011: Only two candidate matches, no bet

30^th April and 1^st May: 4 Candidates reduce to the following three:

At last we hit the big time and have three from three. Returns are:

£25 x 1.5 x 1.8 (£67.50) plus

£25 x 1.5 x 1.57 (£58.88) plus

£25 x 1.8 x 1.57 (£70.65) plus

£25 x 1.8 x 1.57 x 1.57 (£110.92) = £307.95

7^th and 8^th May:

Alas only Celtic pull it off so it’s a wipe-out.

14^th and 15^th May, no bet. Same 21^st and 22^nd.

So that’s it for the 2010-2011 season; a few total wipeouts, some small losses, and one decent payday. 

If you’d like to see a different year analysed or have any questions or comments, please post them below, thanks.

Jamie